Last time they fought, I predicted an Artur Beterbiev win. but not in the way I expected. Indeed, I thought Dimitry Bivol nicked it.
Not only am I sticking with my first prediction second time around, I believe Beterbiev will win decisively. I spoke to people on the inside who told me that Beterbiev did not have the best camp for that first fight. That might explain why he tailed off in the championship rounds.
My understanding is that this camp went much better, which strengthens my view that Beterbiev will win more convincingly. Beterbiev had more than 300 amateur fights, some at heavyweight, stopping big guys. He also had a win against Oleksander Usyk at light heavyweight, and Michael Hunter, both competing at heavyweight in the pros.
He does not blow up between fights. He lives for this game and trains like a beast. He twirls a 25kg barbell about one-handed like a bandleader for goodness sake. That’s freakish power.
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Bivol has a great chin and consummate skills. He defuses power shots as well as any in the game. He uses his height and range to pick off opponents from distance.
But he is up against a rival in Beterbiev who closes you down, takes the distance away and makes the ring the size of a postage stamp. Bivol can’t do to him what he did, for example, to Saul Canelo Alvarez, who does not have the physicality of Beterbiev at 80kg.
Because Beterbiev’s intensity began to fade from round eight in their first meeting, Bivol was able to dictate and the last two rounds were his. That won’t happen this time. Beterbiev will go just as hard early on but keep going into the later rounds.
Beterbiev does not want to give him the same room. He will smother everything and try to beat him up on the inside.
To have a chance Bivol has to throw more scoring shots and not be drawn into a slugfest. He must keep the fight at distance and Beterbiev moving. But that is easier said than done against such an efficient, powerful fighter like Beterbiev, who is expert at walking you down.
Bivol is a brilliantly accomplished boxer, a fabulous all-rounder. It is his misfortune to be up against a machine here, a relentless foe. Technique is necessary but on rare occasions, against a force of nature like Beterbiev, it is not sufficient.
We are talking here about two of the greatest light heavies of all time. But Bivol has to do more to win. I just can’t see it.
**Follow Barry on X at @ClonesCyclone @McGuigan’s_Gym