When Chelsea can secure Champions League qualification explained as dream Maresca scenario clear

When Chelsea can secure Champions League qualification explained as dream Maresca scenario clear Newspoint | 11/03/2025 04:39:15

With 49 points from 28 games, Chelsea are on course to better their tally from last season. The picture does not look bad at all for Enzo Maresca but the feeling does not totally reflect this.

Chelsea are currently poised to qualify for the Champions League and maintain a pursuit of winning the Conference League as hot favourites.

However, a recent run of three wins in 10 Premier League matches - losing five - has left them in a precarious position. Faith in the side has eroded, as shown with fan sentiment growing restless at not only results but also playstyle. Chelsea are fourth but they are far from certain to stay there. The season's goals are within sight but are also teetering.

Now, with just 10 more to go, it is all to play for. Nottingham Forest are two points ahead having beaten Manchester City on Saturday. Pep Guardiola's men are two points behind, with Brighton coming up next. Newcastle United could move to sixth and level with City if they beat West Ham on Monday.

Arsenal are six clear of Chelsea in second but that can be cut to just three next weekend. They are on the verge of having to look over their shoulder slightly nervously in the remaining two months with Liverpool out of sight at the top.

Maresca had his side on Liverpool's tail in mid-December but has only beaten sides currently 20th, 19th, 17th, and 16th since.

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The quality of the opposition meant that anything other than a clean sweep during this period would have been severely disappointing and massively concerning. The job has been done but the last away league victory remains at Tottenham on December 8.

. Chelsea have to travel to Arsenal, Brentford, Newcastle, and Forest still. There is also a tricky test away to Fulham in there. Manchester United, Liverpool, and Tottenham all visit Stamford Bridge.

Tottenham were just as bad, if not worse, when Chelsea beat them 4-3 earlier this season. Newcastle had not got going, Brighton were struggling, and so were Aston Villa.

Bournemouth, another nominal contender for the top four/five, were unfortunate not to get at least a point when Chelsea went there in September. Although there was a draw at home to Arsenal - and they are not particularly frightening heading into next week's clash, the Emirates Stadium has not been a happy hunting ground.

Liverpool were below par and dealt with Chelsea at Anfield whilst the worst Manchester City side of the past 15 years did a job on Maresca home and away. Where Chelsea were competitive last season in big matches they have so far been largely poor. Maresca has done a better job at clearing up with those at the bottom (Ipswich Town are the only major anomaly so far).

It leaves the race to get into Europe as a tight one. England's strong UEFA coefficient means that fifth place will almost certainly be enough to get into the Champions League. That is what Chelsea are chasing. A third-place finish is not impossible if Forest slow down, but consistency would have to improve.

Last season, when Villa and Spurs battled it out for the final spot, 68 points was the magic number. Chelsea ended with 63. They are set to hit 66 at the current rate. Fifth last year was Tottenham with just that amount.

The year before and the bar was higher. Newcastle ended up in fourth with 71 whilst Liverpool came fifth with 67. In 2021/22, when Chelsea last qualified for the Champions League, it was 71 once again to get into the top four. Arsenal had 69 in fifth.

The 2020/21 season saw a reversion to below 70 points as Chelsea hit 67, beating Leicester by one point. That year and the one before were both heavily impacted by Covid-19. 2019/20 needed 66 points for fourth and 62 for fifth.

2018/19 was back up to 71 for fourth and 70 for fifth. In 2017/18, fourth place Liverpool hit 75 points with Chelsea getting to 70 and still only finishing fifth. The year before was 76 and 75 respectively. This is now eight years worth of points tallies and there is no clear line to qualify.

The fact that so many teams this season are in the mix is likely to lower the bar. Clubs can and will take points off each other which intensities the race. It is a scrap to be the best of the average teams rather than a fight of the top ones.

What Chelsea can bank on is needing at least 65 points. The closer to 70 they get then the more likely it will be that Champions League football returns. The 70-point mark is 21 away now, or seven wins in the last 10 games. That will most certainly be enough. 65 is in the fun zone and is only 16 in the distance, a more than achievable target. It may not be enough, regardless.